Increased automation and robotics, including A.I., may see humans becoming surplus to requirements for a large number of roles according to studies by Oxford University and Deloitte into the effect of computerisation on future employment. Oxford’s 2013 study revealed that 47% of total US employment is at risk of being undertaken by machines and its more recent 2014 study with Deloitte found that over the next 2 decades 35% of UK jobs will be at high risk from automation.
Moore’s law states that the amount of computer processing power that you can buy for $1 doubles every 18-24 months and because of this, automisation is now not just a possible option for companies to consider, it is an alternative that can be impossible for some industries to ignore.
High Risk
Clearly there are some jobs that are going to be more at risk than others; one of the largest targets for automation is the transportation industry. Driverless cars are a reality with models likely to come to market in 2018. The theory is that such computer-driven vehicles will never crash, never break any laws, won’t text whilst driving or fall asleep at the wheel, will not require any rest breaks during long journeys and will drive in the most efficient manner possible, thereby improving fuel economy and tyre wear.
In addition, fully automated workplaces are on the rise with a number of large employers looking to replace human workers with computerised alternatives. Amazon is proposing to carry out deliveries using drones and has also recently started using “Kiva” robots in its warehouses. Kivas are vehicular robots that are programmed to speed around warehouses picking orders from shelves, a task originally performed by a human.
Robots won’t strike, raise grievances or otherwise create HR issues whilst significantly reducing the need for management and training roles. In recent years it was widely reported that Amazon’s warehouse workers had raised multiple complaints about working conditions as they had to walk huge distances every day to pick order items under huge time pressures. Potentially, Kivas will not only put an end to all of these complaints but also to a number of the workers’ jobs.
Its not just “blue collar” jobs which are at risk: middle-management are also likely to be affected by technological advancements. If you have read a newspaper or magazine recently, odds are that you will have read an article written by a software bot.
IPsoft’s call centre avatar Amelia “understands what people ask – even what they feel – when they call for service.” It works using the same instruction manuals or prompts that a human operator would and “learns” as it works, providing high quality responses consistently. IBM’s Watson can assess X-rays and MRI scans and offer a lung cancer treatment plan for patients. NEC Corporation’s Sophie can carry out interviews of human job applicants. She is programmed to not only ask and respond to questions but also to measure an interviewee’s physiological responses.
Replacement or Enhancement?
IPsoft states that it is not looking to push humans out of a job, it is simply trying to free up humans’ time by allowing Amelia to take on the mundane, repetitive, routine and uninspiring tasks. Taking away these tasks will allow humans to focus on higher value functions.
Whatever the impact on jobs, employers, governments and education providers need to respond by up-skilling the workforce for the future. Whilst A.I. won’t replace people entirely, employers will have to completely re-think the structure of their workforces. During this “revolution” new roles will inevitably emerge and will be required to be fulfilled by people. The Oxford/Deloitte study claims that any tech-driven job losses will be outweighed by new jobs requiring skills that involve creativity, complex problem-solving and high technical content.
Adjustment will inevitably include large scale re-organisations and, in some areas, redundancies whilst employers modify their workplaces to accommodate computerised workers. Employers will need to be compliant with statutory and contractual obligations in such scenarios. Restructuring an organisation to embrace technology will require considerable forethought and planning and the resulting role changes will see terms and conditions being amended.
The key is for employers and governments to keep pace with technological advancements and to have a strategy in order to deal with the introduction of advanced automation and/or A.I. Those organisations that accept and embrace this will undoubtedly benefit from the rise of technology.
I think with the rise of AI we’ll have to see a more efficient way of distributing work and paying citizens. I’m looking at universal basic income to save us here.